Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 84815.014484 89519.863434 94225.863898 99282.953969 104560.282332 109901.699789 115713.338667
2025-11-23 76482.753928 83617.414057 90955.477646 99056.894130 107740.211588 116757.846014 126820.547179
2025-11-30 71658.170210 80528.015699 89850.432647 100358.641827 111853.100568 124023.478352 137862.846634
2025-12-07 67725.321785 77888.643566 88765.788105 101239.564372 115114.332146 130038.944288 147271.476733
2025-12-14 63952.818104 75075.847284 87172.351257 101255.952021 117151.609944 134485.596535 154764.942006
2025-12-21 60909.245507 72840.222580 86003.639605 101537.988011 119299.678855 138903.890850 162105.432285
2025-12-28 59003.661889 71746.719593 85988.751521 102999.637483 122674.128164 144621.966141 170861.477932
2026-01-04 57098.743447 70525.676998 85714.561589 104061.130384 125507.485015 149668.091584 178822.982874
2026-01-11 55170.433463 69166.600473 85182.114072 104733.272837 127817.500093 154063.416198 186010.437593
2026-01-18 53151.033673 67599.237954 84315.471182 104930.157281 129503.272768 157686.832029 192274.784921
2026-01-25 51342.898047 66201.979632 83575.282114 105207.452565 131226.658214 161314.715818 198524.794433
2026-02-01 49500.908548 64685.788454 82622.264382 105164.526569 132514.605469 164391.775701 204105.314853
2026-02-08 48349.693760 63988.237007 82640.090070 106288.114567 135214.547943 169178.520227 211783.091860
2026-02-15 46688.165886 62596.178580 81757.498115 106269.083433 136500.119763 172260.857654 217429.744442
2026-02-22 45847.829161 62198.276822 82069.351941 107694.355648 139533.934347 177449.409910 225636.084620
2026-03-01 44831.968988 61535.434543 82015.954660 108637.421731 141957.186917 181895.389753 232959.453603
2026-03-08 43442.658213 60344.404524 81255.625305 108656.824116 143206.324270 184892.198462 238514.616862
2026-03-15 42259.408075 59378.993957 80743.813125 108956.062944 144779.223581 188273.381827 244544.176869
2026-03-22 41702.522663 59208.545864 81226.944042 110504.611844 147915.808705 193593.185943 252992.155331
2026-03-29 40991.139595 58807.206540 81391.154298 111629.025200 150509.959509 198245.950547 260637.156512
2026-04-05 40139.038506 58189.621737 81250.551719 112340.939913 152568.316311 202230.441808 267465.859880
2026-04-12 39116.120529 57310.884740 80740.814712 112549.465206 153965.380945 205378.436130 273254.209165
2026-04-19 38174.970136 56514.332333 80313.569722 112843.147816 155456.307841 208639.349054 279193.251472